What is an out?

In a hand like this, if you believe your opponent has a hand like AK, you would consider 3 J’s and 2 T’s as outs. With the runner-runner straight draw possibility, you can add another 1 out for a total of 6 outs. I adjust 1.39 outs and turn it into only 1 out because of the chance you can hit your hand on the Turn, but your opponent draws an even higher hand on the River.

2. When you need two cards, but you have more options

Your hand: T9

Flop: J-T-6 rainbow

In this case, you can make a runner-runner straight with any of these card combinations on the Turn and then River: KQ, QK, Q8, 8Q, 87, 78. Each of these combinations has a 0.74% chance of happening or 4/47 x 4/46. Since there are 6 combinations, then the total chance of hitting the runner-runner straight is 6 x 0.74% = 4.44%. The equivalent in terms of outs is 2.09. Here is the table.

But these combinations are dangerous too, in that you when you catch, someone else may have a higher straight. For example, using the above hole cards and Flop, if you catch a K on the Turn and a Q on the River, you would make a K-Q-J-T-9 straight. But a player with just an A would have a higher straight. So as a rule of thumb, count these runner-runner straight possibilities as only one out instead of two. It may be a bit on the conservative side, but it makes it easier to count outs on all runner-runner straight draws the same. There are already a lot of things to consider when playing a poker hand at the table. This tiny difference is small enough to ignore. In summary, count all runner-runner straight draws as 1 out.

KQ with a Flop of J-8-3 may be better than AK

Since many players like to play hands that contain an A,

If you have AK and do not hit a pair on the Flop, you may actually have fewer outs than compared to the times when you have two overcards without an A, such as with a hand like KQ. This is because you are more likely to get counterfeited with an A since so many players like to play hands that contain an A. Let’s take a look at a specific situation.

Flop: J-8-3 rainbow

It is more likely for players to play hands like AJ or KJ than they would with QJ. It is more likely for them to have A8 than Q8 since A8 is perceived to be a better hand. So if your opponent has made a split pair on the Flop, you could still have 6 outs with KQ, but it will be less likely you have 6 outs with AK since hitting a A will more likely improve your opponent’s hand as well, thus counterfeiting your hand.

Counting Outs Quiz

1. You are last to act on the Turn.

Your hand: 3♠2♠

Board: A♠5♣K♦ [turn] 9♥

There are three other players in the hand on the Turn. How many outs do you think you have?

Answer

With three other players, it is almost impossible for a 3 or a 2 to be an out for you, as you should be confident someone else has a pair if not better. You should count this as hand as having four outs, the four 4's will give you the nut straight and there will not be a flush possible.

2. You have checked and your opponent has bet on the Turn.

Your hand: Q♠8♣

Board: J♣T♦3♠ [turn] 4♣

You suspect your opponent has a J but you are not sure of his kicker. How man outs would you estimate?

Answer

You can make a straight with a 9, that would be four outs. If he does not have QJ, then 3 Q’s become outs for you, but there is a chance he does have a Q, and it would be conservative to assume 2/3 of the time a Q will be an out. In that case, you can count it as two outs instead of three. When added to the four outs for the straight, it means you have a total of six outs.

3. You are in the big blind. There is only one limper, the small blind calls and you check.

Your hand: T♣3♣

Flop: J♣6♦2♠

Everyone checks on the Flop.

Turn: 4♣

The Turn gives you a flush draw and an inside straight draw. The small blind bets out and you are sure it means he is not bluffing because you know how he plays. You are sure he has at least a pair of J’s. How many outs would you estimate you have?

Answer