Poker
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What is an out?
When your outs are not actually outs, and when a blank is actually an out
In Hold’em, the situation will come up often when a card that improves your hand will also improve an opponent’s hand. In such a case, you may think the card is an out for you when it may not be at all. For example:
Your hand: A♠K♣
Board: Q♣8♦7♠2♥
If your opponent has a pair, then it is possible that you have 6 outs, as any A or K could turn your hand from a loser to a winner. But if your opponent holds a card that matches the board and one of your hole cards (in this case, an A or K), then you actually only have 3 outs. For example, in the above hand, if he had A♣2♦, then your only outs are the three other K’s in the deck. Although any
A will improve your hand to a pair of A’s, it improves his hand from a pair of 2's to two pair.
Another frequent occurrence is when a card that gives you a pair actually gives the other player a straight. In a case like that, it may be that a card that you thought was an out for you is actually an out for him, and he was the one chasing. For example:
Your hand: A♣9♦
Board: K♣T♠2♦2♥
If your opponent holds Q♣ J♠, then an A is actually an out for him, not for you, as it gives him a straight. You are actually ahead on the Turn and more cards can come on the River to give you the winning hand, but from the play of the hand, it may not necessarily look like that.
Assume we have perfect information
Assume we have perfect information and we know our opponent’s cards. This will make it easier to figure out how many outs we have. It is also easiest to use the situation on the Turn as there will be only one more card to come on the River. This means we will not be worried about catching our hand only to get redrawn at a later round as might be the case on the Flop when there are still two cards to come. We also do not need to worry about what happens if we miss on the Turn and catch on the River.
Here are some hands, the boards, the specific cards that are outs and the number of outs and non-outs for your hand.
|
Your hand |
Opp.’s hand |
Board |
Cards that are outs for your hand |
Number of Outs |
Number of Non-Outs |
|
J♥T♥ |
K♣K♦ |
K♥8♠6♥4♠ |
A♥, Q♥, 9♥, 8♥, 7♥, 5♥, 4♥, 3♥, 2♥ |
9 |
35 |
|
J♥ T♥ |
K♣K♦ |
K♥Q♠7♣3♦ |
A♣, A♦, A♥, A♠, 9♣, 9♦, 9♥, 9♠ |
8 |
36 |
|
A♣A♦ |
K♠Q♠ |
K♣Q♣J♠7♠ |
A♥, J♣, J♦, J♥, T♣, T♦, T♥, 7♣, 7♦, 7♥ |
10 |
34 |
|
9♠8♠ |
J♠J♣ |
A♣9♣7♦6♦ |
T♣, T♦, T♥, T♠, 9♦, 9♥, 8♣, 8♦, 8♥, 5♣, 5♦, 5♥, 5♠ |
13 |
31 |
|
A♣K♦ |
Q♣Q♦ |
J♣8♦3♠2♥ |
A♦, A♥, A♠, K♣, K♥, K♠ |
6 |
38 |
|
T♠9♠ |
A♠K♠ |
Q♠J♠T♣9♣ |
8♠, T♥, T♦, 9♥, 9♦ |
5 |
39 |
Note that the total number of unknown cards for each hand in this table is 44. Normally the
assumption is 46 for the number of unknown cards on the Turn, but in this table, the assumption is that the opponent’s hand is known, so that cuts down 46 unknown cards to 44 unknown cards.
As a general rule of thumb, if you think your hand becomes the best hand if you hit your draw, you can assume the following number of outs:
|
Type of Draw |
Rule of thumb for outs with 1 card to come |
|
Flush draw |
9 |
|
Open ended or double inside straight draw |
8 |
|
Overpair versus two pair |
6 |
|
Two overcards versus one pair |
6 |
|
Middle pair versus Top pair where the kickers are different |
5 |
|
Inside straight draw |
4 |
|
One overcard versus one pair |
3 |
|
Pocket pair versus a higher pair |
2 |
Sometimes we have a combination of more than one of these type of draws. We could have a flush draw and a straight draw at the same time, which could increase the number of outs up to 15. For example:
Your hand: J♣T♣
Board: Q♣-9♣-x-x
In this case, any club would make you a flush and any K or 8 would make you a straight. There are 9 clubs left in the deck, and 8 straight cards left in the deck (4 K’s and 4 8's). However, the K♣ and the 8♣ are already counted as one of the 9 clubs, so there really is only 6 other cards that would give your hand a straight. In total 15 cards would make either the straight or flush