What is an out?

Counting the outs when you have a split pair versus an opponent’s higher split pair

A split pair means when you make a pair with one card in your hand and one card on the board.

For example:

Your hand: ATo

Flop: J-T-3 rainbow

In this case, you have a split pair of T’s, one in your hand and the other on the board. If you suspect your opponent has a split pair of J’s, then you may think you have 5 outs (three A’s and two T’s). However, if your opponent’s kicker matches your kicker, then you would only have 2 outs (two T’s). For example, if he had JT, he would already have two pair, and you would have 3 outs (three A’s). But if he had AJ with only one pair, and you hit your A for two pair, then he would simultaneously hit his two pair as well, and his two pair would be better than your two pair since he would have A’s and J’s while you have A’s and T’s. In this case, you would only have the two remaining T’s as outs. This may seem counterintuitive at first because in this situation, you would actually prefer he had JT for two pair than AJ for one pair. You prefer your opponent to have what would appear to be a stronger hand because you would actually have a better chance of drawing out against his two pair of J’s and T’s than you do of drawing out against his one pair with the same kicker as yours. When you improve by hitting an A, you are counterfeited because your improvement is fake.

Counting the outs when you may have more outs than you think

This can occur if you are on a straight draw or a flush draw, but have another chance of winning, such as pairing one of your cards. If you are not sure, it would be helpful to estimate the probability one of these overcards as an out. For example:

Your hand: A♠T♠

Board: K♠9♠7♣2♥

If you do not think your opponent has a draw to a full house, then you have 9 outs for the flush. If your opponent only has a pair and does not have an A or T as his kicker, then you may have up to 6 additional outs. If he has KQ, then any A is an out for you, giving you 3 additional outs with your flush draw, although the a T would not be an out for your hand. If he has AK, then an A is not an out for you, and you only have 9 outs. If he has 98 for a pair of 9's, then both the A and the T would be outs for you, giving you 6 additional outs with your flush draw for a total of 15 outs. As a rule of thumb, normally assume half of the overcard(s) that you may have to the board are outs because pairing your overcard may or may not give you the winning hand. In the case above, with A♠T♠ as your hand, assume there are 1.5 additional outs along with the flush draw. This is because only an A is a true overcard to the board. So consider yourself to have 10.5 outs, 9 outs for the flushes and 1.5 outs for the A, which is half of the three remaining A’s. This is a shot in the dark method, but it is better than assuming 3 A’s are outs as well as assuming none of them are outs. Of course, the betting of the hand in particular may tell you otherwise. If the betting has been strong from decent players from the beginning, it makes it more likely someone has AA or AK, in which case there are no additional outs to the flush draw outs. Also, the number of players will make a difference. With more players, the likelihood of any overcard being an out decreases. If